Category Archives: Baseball

Baseball’s Second Season: Previewing October…Again

Posted on October 3, 2014 | 1 comment

There is something to be said for fandom. It kind of creeps into your mind and heart, virus like in its ability to effect mood, behavior, and even health. That can be both positive and negative, but as someone who experienced playoff fandom this afternoon, all I can say is that there are going to be some butterflies, chewed nails, plus a whole lot of cursing and celebrating during these baseball playoffs.

Last year I did a prediction post. It was blast to write and happened to generate some luckily accurate results to boot. This year, with teams I care about in the playoffs, I knew I wouldn’t have any sort of objectivity when evaluating the postseason participants, so I opted against it. However, despite the playoffs having already started, I will give some opinions about what I like about a few of theses teams: more musings and generics, rather than in-depth analysis.

Nationals: This team is about as complete a unit as you can put together in baseball. They don’t appear to have any real weakness, and the big question that many did have about them was their closer, Rafael Soriano, who Matt Williams removed from the role in favor of Drew Storen. As big of a postseason as this is for the Nationals, it’s as big, if not bigger for Storen who had the meltdown in game 5 of the division series against the Cardinals in 2012. If I had to pick a team to win the World Series, this would be the squad.

Dodgers: This team is as Hollywood as its location. They have the big names, big money, and big time performers that it takes to win a World Series, though there are some questions about the bullpen. With a lineup that has a good combination of power (Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig) and speed (Dee Gordon, Puig again), plus a 1-2 pitching punch like Clayton Kershaw, and Zach Grienke, most other years this team would have more than enough talent to make it out of the NL.

Cardinals and Giants: These two teams have far more postseason experience that either of their two opponents, with the Cardinals having represented the National League in the World Series in 2011 and 13 (Winning in ’11) and the Giants having won it all in 2010 and 2012. Both these teams have veteran talent, and certainly know that it takes to win on the big stage, but they simply have to bridge too large of a talent gap. The Giants used their ace in the wild card matchup, and the rest of their rotation isn’t all that scary. That is ignoring a lineup that will be hard pressed to generate runs (yes, I know they erupted last night). The Cards have the names of Wainwright, and Molina, and Holliday, but just don’t have the lineup top to bottom. With all that said, the Nats and Dodgers certainly won’t be underestimating either of these two.

Angels: This team begins and ends with Mike Trout. It is vastly oversimplifying things, but he has the talent to take them all the way. If any of their vets, namely some dudes named Albert and Josh, can get going, they could bash their way through the playoffs. With their best starter (Garrett Richards) done, they might need to, because their rotation is nothing to lose sleep over. The addition of Huston Street to their backend was huge. They are the clubhouse favorites in the AL due to their play throughout the season, but I think they have a lot of susceptibility.

Royals: Meet the Kansas City Track Stars, who go by the Royals sometimes too. Last year it was the Pirates ending their postseason drought, and the year before it was the Orioles. This team already got a huge monkey off its back just by making the dance, and they are gonna run with it, literally, until someone stops them. Just ask the the A’s, who got Forrest Gump-ed out of Kansas City on Tuesday due to seven stolen bases. The Royals will need more of the same if they want to get out of an AL bracket that features three other slugging teams. This team rarely hits home runs, but if they can get on base consistently, watch out. Their defense and bullpen might both be the best in the tourney as well.

Tigers: It seems like every year they are the best team on paper, and yet every year they don’t perform until they squeak into the postseason. This year followed that model to a T. Detroit was bad all season, considering their talent. Yes, a lot of that can be blamed on their woeful bullpen (who looked even worse tonight), but the reality is the starting pitching, big names and all, failed to produce quality results. This team will always have the potential to blow everyone out of the water, but until they put it together its hard to see them making a deep run. They won their division on the last day, a feat that could have proved some momentum, but they then got shelled by the Orioles today in the opener, and have to deal with more questions. They are easily the toughest to team to read, because their talent screams “wow,” while their performances often produce a big “meh”

Orioles: If the Tigers are the under achievers, the Orioles are their antithesis. They have overcome key injuries (Matt Wieters, Manny Machado) and a suspension (Chris Davis), and seemingly gotten better as the season’s progressed. They are led by a redemption story (Nelson Cruz), a guy who forgot that walks exist in baseball (Adam Jones), and players no one else seemed to want (Steve Pearce, Miguel Gonzalez). Not many had them getting this far, and some still aren’t giving them their due. Baltimore’s best weapon might be Buck Showalter’s brain, and its ability to puppeteer an outstanding bullpen. This team feels like a team of destiny of this year with all that they’ve overcome, but hey, I’m insanely biased.

 

Speaking of biases, I also wrote a piece about the parity between the Nationals and Orioles record wise last season. This season that trend continued in a big way. It seemed liked every day these two teams were separated by a parkway and not more than one or two games. That culminated with them both clinching their respective divisions within roughly an hour of each other, and ending up with identical records on he last day of baseball (heck, they both even won their final games 1-0). It’s amazing how far baseball in the DC-Baltimore area has come. The Nationals were expected to be here this season with their talent, but the Orioles kept pace all season long. Four years ago these two teams were baseball’s bottom feeders . This year there is a legitimate chance of them meeting in the World Series. Crazy.

The playoffs started with a wild Wild Card game that saw two teams give it everything they had. Hopefully that was just the beginning, because as a fan, all you can ask for at the end of the day is your team leaving it all on the diamond. Should be a fun October.

 

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Looking Back on October

Posted on October 30, 2013 | Leave a comment

Thank you to the Boston Red Sox for making me look smart. Also congrats on winning the World Series…I guess. For the Red Sox it was a happy ending to a strange postseason ride. Who knew the key for the Red Sox all along was for Shane Victorino to hit with the bases loaded? Joking aside, this team couldn’t seem to hit for its life, save for the super human stats of WS MVP David Ortiz. Ortiz hit .688 during the WS. Yes, .688. That is not a typo. However, neither is this: no other player on the Red Sox hit higher than .250. As a team they were closer to the Mendoza Line than that .250 mark. That’s abysmal for a group that finished the regular season as MLB’s best offense. Their saving grace was that they were CLUTCH. Mike Napoli had two hits in the series: one a three run double, the other an RBI single. Victorino also had only two hits. Can you guess what they were? Yep, a three run double and an RBI single. Jonny Gomes was hitless in the series before launching a three run, go ahead home run in game four. The list goes on.

Despite that lack of offensive production, pitching will keep you in games, and the Red Sox pitchers, primarily Jon Lester, did just that. A good way to cancel out a team batting average of around .200, is to have a team ERA of about 2.00. What do you get when you combine that bad offense and good pitching? You get a lot of close games. Of the Red Sox sixteen postseason games, only four were decided by more than three runs. Their pitchers put themselves in the position for their hitters to be clutch. Lester himself was clutch, pitching two brilliant games opposite Cards ace, Adam Wainright. It may seem like an oversimplification, but if your ace loses twice in a best of seven series, your chances are very slim. Overall, this probably wasn’t how John Farrell would have drawn it up, but Beantown is celebrating, and for the Fenway Faithful, that’s all that matters.

Looking back on the playoffs as a whole I did alright (ok fine, I was brilliantly lucky). I missed one game in the DS, picking Oakland in 5 (Tigers won in 5). I missed one game in the CS, picking the Cards in 7 (they won in 6). And though it looked iffy after the Cards took a 2-1 lead in the WS, I got it right, with the Sox winning in 6. Overall that is about as good (lucky) as I could have hoped. I have no doubt my next prediction will be as wrong as humanly possible. Such is the law of sports predictions: genius one minute, idiot the next. For now I will take the Red Sox lead and enjoy my prognostication.

I will miss baseball though. With three and a half months until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, gotta make do. Luckily there is a lot to tide me over. Football is in full swing. Soccer is too. Basketball is just getting under way. Plus, the Sochi Olympics will be taking the spotlight in February. It has been a fun season, but until spring I bid baseball (in the words of Orioles’ announcer Gary Thorne) “Adieu, adieu!”

Notes:

  • Red Sox are first team since 1991 Twins to win the World Series a year after finishing last in their division.
  • Tim McCarver announced his final World Series game
  • First time the Red Sox clinch the World Series at home since 1918
  • Ortiz is third oldest WS MVP

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Baseball’s Second Season: Previewing October

Posted on October 3, 2013 | 2 comments

Alright, so I cheated a little bit. I waited until after the wild card games to preview and give my predictions for the postseason. It was my birthday Monday, and I’m using that as my lame holdover excuse (definitely not the fact that one game is much harder to predict than a five or seven game series). So now the Division Series is set and we have Detroit-Oakland and Boston-Tampa in the AL, and L.A.-Atlanta and St. Louis-Pittsburgh representing the NL. Here is how it will all absolutely, without question, pan out.

ALDS

  • Detroit Tigers – Oakland Athletics

It seems the past couple of seasons Detroit has been the best team in the league on paper. In 2012 that didn’t manifest until well into the year, but the Tigers kicked it into high gear in time to make a run to the World Series. This year’s Detroit squad played better throughout the regular season. They were led by probable back-to-back MVP Miguel Cabrera and his demigod ability to hit, coupled with likely Cy-Young Max Scherzer’s breakout year. That talent on both sides of the ball means they are looking at another deep run, right? Well maybe not. Cabrera has been nursing injuries down the stretch, and I really like this Oakland team. Last year they shocked the baseball world with the best record after May, and ended up stealing the AL West title from the Rangers on the last day of the regular season. That did not translate to the playoffs and some were skeptical if the A’s could continue their good play this year. Well they answered that question emphatically. For most of the season they battled with the Rangers for first place out West before turning on the afterburners down the stretch and leaving Texas in the dust. Detroit has too much pitching and a good enough lineup even without a fully healthy Cabrera to go quietly, but Oakland has been lights out in September and I think that carries over. Bob Melvin’s boys in five games. 

  • Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay Rays

The Sox have been the most consistent team in baseball all year. That would have been hard to imagine a year ago this time, but after a couple tough seasons, Beantown will experience October baseball again. Not much was expected from this team coming into the season. The blockbuster trade last August with the Dodgers looked like the beginning of a long rebuilding process, but John Farrell was hired away from Toronto in a trade, and some key free agent signings like Shane Victorino (who I thought they overpaid) have been huge for them. The pitching staff rebounded well, and Koji Uehara did a historic job as closer after some injuries at the position early in the season. This teams scores a ton too, in fact the most in baseball, All that doesn’t phase a Rays team that just won back-to-back road win-or-go-home games just to get to this point. I think that does hurt them with David Price not pitching opening game against the Sox, and at some point all that travel is going to be a negative. In these five game series it’s so important to set the tone in that first game.The Rays staff is very good, but Fenway is going to be a madhouse, and the Sox have had their number for most of the year, winning the season series 12-7. That doesn’t change now, Sox in four.

NLDS

  • Los Angeles Dodgers-Atlanta Braves

The two best staff ERAs in baseball meet head-to-head. By now most people know about the Dodgers’ story this year. They got off to an absolutely terrible start, and many were calling for Don Mattingly’s job by early June. Enter some guy named Yasiel Puig and suddenly the Dodgers go from arctic cold to volcano hot. That’s an oversimplification, but you get the picture. The Braves had a couple streaks of their own, but weren’t as flashy. They were expected to be in a dogfight with the Nationals all season, but the Nats lackluster form for much of the year essentially handed the division to the Braves. Baseball is a long season, and these two teams had their peaks and valleys, quite drastic ones in LA’s case. I do think the Dodgers may have peaked a bit too soon, but I also think the Braves got no benefit from playing with house money most of the second half. A one-two punch of Clayton Kershaw and Zach Grienke is built for October baseball, and the Braves are a team that can rely a bit too much on the long ball at times. If Atlanta can get some leads and hand it off to their killer bullpen led by Craig Kimbrel, I give them a chance, but I really like Kershaw to get this started right, and the Braves have made a habit of underperforming in October. Puig Mania continues for at least a little while longer, Dodgers in four. 

  • Pittsburgh Pirates – St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh has been the darling of the baseball world this season. The past two years they got off to good starts only to see second half fades derail their goals. There was no such letdown this year. The Buccos posted their first winning season since 1992 (I had just celebrated my first birthday for perspective), and went to the playoffs for the first time since that year as well. The magic of their season continued into the Wild Card game against division rivals the Reds. PNC Park was rocking for its first ever taste of playoff baseball. One of the prettiest spots in the game, the park opened in 2001, smack dab in the middle of Pittsburgh’s stretch of futility. The Pirates handled the Reds thanks to a great start for Francisco Liriano, and some big early home runs. So what is their reward? Well a date with their other division rivals, the Cards. While the Pirates have long been the poster child for organizational dysfunction, the Cardinals have arguably been MLB’s model franchise. With a couple of World Series titles in the last decade, St. Louis is a player every year. They seem to have “it.” Both teams are top five in team ERA, with the slight edge to Pittsburgh, but St. Louis dominates in the offensive categories.  The Pirates are a good team, and have a great defense, but they are new to this postseason stuff. The Cardinals know what they’re doing. Allen Craig’s absence will hurt the Cards, and I see the Pirates making it competitive, but St. Louis in five. 

ALCS

  • Boston Redsox – Oakland A’s

Oakland didn’t get a whole lot of love this season. They play in a dump of a stadium, and have a small payroll, but they are legit. However, I think the East Coast/West Coast travel thing plays a part here, and Boston getting to open at home gives them an advantage. I’m going with the team from the much tougher division. Big Papi has a big series, and Koji closes out some close games. John Farrell continues to make his hire look genius. Oakland will give them a headache, but Boston wins in 6.

NLCS

  • Los Angeles Dodgers – St. Louis Cardinals

Two storied franchises whose styles mimic their cities. St. Louis is unglamorous, but there is an attraction to their consistency and rhythm, while the boys in blue bring the A-List star power that rivals their neighbors over in Hollywood. The Dodgers had a truly jaw dropping run, but I think in the playoffs, experience matters. The Dodgers are going to be the team to beat in the NL in 2014 as Magic Johnson’s ownership group will likely throw more cash around, but I’m sticking with the “it” factor for the present. Adam Wainright will pull out two huge wins much like Chris Carpenter did a couple of years ago, and the offense led my Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina will do enough. Cardinals in seven great games.

World Series

  • Boston Red Sox – St. Louis Cardinals

The two teams tied for the best record in baseball. How boring and predictable can I get, right? While I admit my picks haven’t been risky, I truly think the consistency over the year sets these teams apart. Both squads came out of the best division in their respective leagues, and that competition throughout the year matters. Home field advantage is a biggie here, but the Sox also have a good story on their side. No one outside of Mass. gave the Sox much of a chance to be playing this late in fall. Boston will have to be more offensively consistent in this series. They were streaky against the Tigers, and certainly can’t count on two late Grand Slams again. In a rematch of that lopsided 2004 World Series, I think Pedroia leads by example and nets MVP, leading the Sox in a closer than it appears six game series.

Added Notes on the World Series matchup:

  • Yadier Molina is the only player left from that 2004 World Series Cardinals team. Molina was current Cardinals manager Mike Matheny’s backup.
  • David Ortiz remains for the Sox
  • The Red Sox have won eight straight World Series games, longest streak in history by any team other than the New York Yankees.
  • This marks the first time since 1995 that the two teams with the best records will be facing off in the Fall Classic.
  • Allen Craig will be available for the Cardinals for the first time during the postseason

There you have it. I can’t wait to revisit these picks in a month and smugly gloat about my terrific insight (definitely won’t weep openly at my woefully inaccurate selections). You can weigh in on who you think will be king of October below.

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Context for DMV Baseball: All Tied UP

Posted on September 12, 2013 | 4 comments

Last summer was a revival for Mid-Atlantic baseball. Going into the season the Orioles and Nationals were mired in long stretches of losing campaigns, and at least for the Orioles, the end to that futility didn’t seem close. The Nationals had some young promise with Bryce Harper waiting in the wings, and Stephen Strasburg leading a young pitching staff with potential, but even then many media members were expecting only minor improvement.

Well the year was a rounding success in Baltimore and in DC. The Nationals ended up with the best record in baseball, while the Orioles fought their way into the playoffs thanks to the introduction of the second wildcard. Their were plenty of positive story lines to throw around: the O’s clutch record in 1 run games and extra innings, the Nats brilliant pitching staff, the emergence of the young stars (Harper for DC, and Manny Machado for Baltimore), etc. The Orioles beat the Rangers in the wildcard game, before losing a hard-fought five game series to the Yankees. The Nationals lost a heartbreaking game five in DC to the St. Louis Cardinals after staying alive in the series the night before. Both teams looked a bit lost at times in the postseason, but still the seasons were more than most fans could have hoped for after 2011.

The offseason saw the Nationals hailed as the next great baseball dynasty, while the Orioles season had largely been called flukey. The Nats went out and got Dan Haren, Rafael Soriano, and Denard Span. The Orioles made very few moves, choosing instead to rely on in-house solutions. Spring training 2013 rolled around and just about everyone and their mother was picking the Nats to make an appearance in the World Series. The Orioles got largely mixed reviews. Many said they couldn’t repeat their luck in close games, and would fall back to earth because of their lack of pitching. Though the teams had different projections, both clubhouses were quite confident in their ability. Davey Johnson, going into his last year as Nats manager, proclaimed “World Series or bust,” while Orioles like centerfielder Adam Jones and manager Buck Showalter, talked about the unity and drive of the guys in their clubhouse.

Like with all sports, talk is cheap until proven on the field, or in this case diamond. The first three-quarters of the season could not have gone much more differently for the two clubs. The Nats crumbled under the pressure. They played sloppy D, they couldn’t score, and though the pitching staff was good at times, the bullpen often struggled. Guys like Ryan Zimmerman and Danny Espinosa got off to slow starts (Espinosa is now struggling in the minors), and the team couldn’t seem to find its identity. The Orioles on the other hand seemed to be proving people wrong. Chris Davis blasted his way into the MVP conversation by hitting towering home run after towering home run. If it weren’t for some guy named Miguel Cabrera, he would probably be a lock for the award. Manny Machado followed up a short rookie campaign with a torrid start highlighted by his ability to spray doubles all over the field, and make quasi-miraculous plays at third base. Jones put in the best start to any season of his career and yet found himself playing third fiddle. Where the Nats couldn’t score runs, the O’s were leading the majors in homers. Where the Nats D seemed to be making stupid errors, the O’s started historically error free. The O’s rotation was still shaky, and a bullpen that had been one of the best in baseball in 2012 was suddenly very hittable, but the Orioles were sticking around, as the Nats fell off the face of the earth.

Enter September. The homestretch. The Nats appeared to be completely out of it. The Braves had seemingly long ago run away with the division, and the torrid pace of the three Central teams (Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals) left them way off the wild-card pace too. The Orioles seemed poised for a September push that had been the norm during Showalter’s time at the team’s helm. With their fate in their hands they couldn’t ask for more.

The calendar turned and boom, the Nats came alive. An anemic offense all season, suddenly guys found their groove. Span extended his hitting streak to 23 games, second in club history to Zimmerman’s 30 game streak in spring of 2009. Speaking of Zimmerman, the guy has 8 homers in his last 10 games. Not too shabby. A team that looked all but out of it, the Nats suddenly have an outside chance (a very outside chance) of sneaking into the playoffs as they ended the evening 5.5 games back of the Reds. Tonight they completed a four game sweep of the Mets in New York, out homering them 13-0 in the process. Can you say caliente? There is not a team in baseball that wants to face these guys right now, and should they squeeze into October play, the swagger they have right now makes them a dangerous team. It may be too little too late for the Nats, but it appears as though they at least have some confidence for next season.

September has been much less kind to the Orioles. They came into the month third in their division and third in the wild card standings. And while they are still right there, they have failed to capitalize on almost every opportunity given them. Perhaps the only team in the AL race that has been worse than the O’s are the Rays, but the O’s still have made up almost no ground. The Yankees, those old decrepit Yankees whom everyone seemed down on, just finished taking 3 of 4 from the Orioles in Baltimore, including a heartbreaking loss tonight. After what looked to be shaping up as a good year for Baltimore and a bad one for New York, the Orioles find themselves 1.5 back of the Bronx Bombers, and 2.5 out of the wildcard with 16 games remaining. Last years stellar record in close games? Well forget about that. The O’s have one of the worst records in close games in the majors this year, not a good stat when playing important stretch baseball.

The biggest kicker is that the Nationals and Orioles finished with identical records tonight. 77-69 is the result of a 6 game win streak for the Nats and a 3 game skid for the O’s. After five months that saw the Nats in the baseball doghouse, while the Orioles seemed to be darlings again, the two clubs are in the same position: fighting for their proverbial lives. By no means are the Orioles out of it. They still have time, but they are gonna have to turn it around in a hurry. The Nationals are fighting every time they take the field right now, and though they aren’t mathematically out of it yet, they need to keep up their scorching pace and hope for some help from Cincinnati.

This year looks like it won’t end the way Davey Johnson envisioned with the Nats as World Champs. The Orioles look like they might not be making a return trip to the postseason. But both organizations are in a good place going forward, and compared to a couple of years ago, that’s a great thing to be able to say. Like it says up top, context. At least they aren’t tied for last.

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Baseball’s Methodical March

Posted on August 13, 2013 | 4 comments

As I sit down to write this, the Baltimore Orioles just got through battling back to tie their game against the Diamondbacks in the ninth, only for Adam Eaton to hit the first pitch of the bottom half of the inning over the fence and into a pool. Yes, that would be the literal pool at Chase Field.

The 7-6 walk off win sent the Diamondbacks pouring from the dugout, and the Orioles headed to the showers. A claw-it-out top of the ninth erased on one pitch in the next frame. In another sport that might mean weeks, months, or even years for the chance to get even, but this is baseball, and these two teams will be dueling it out in less than 24 hours.

Baseball is long. There are complaints of games stretching out to the point that people lose interest. The season lasts from April into the first days of November some years. That doesn’t even count spring training. The history of the game is longer still. Baseball isn’t going to hold everyone’s attention and that’s fine. For the baseball lifers, however, it’s as much about the rich mystique of bygone days as it is about the wins and losses of the current season. It’s as much about the meticulous analysis and fluidity of advanced statistics as it is about the more cosmetic home runs  and stolen bases. It’s as much about hot dogs and hats as it is about bats and balls. The great thing is, each of those little footnotes makes up a new chapter everyday. There is a sense of intense pride in keeping up with all that, certainly not a feeling of boredom.

Football is king in this country. There is no disputing that. I enjoy football as much as the next guy, but whenever I hear people complaining about how boring baseball is in comparison, I have a hard time understanding. When you take into account the fact that football is played once a week, features by some estimates less than eleven minutes of actual action, and that each telecast is about one third commercials, it becomes a lot less exciting. Football lacks rhythm and pacing. Sure once the play starts it has the chance to be exciting, but waiting six days, hearing the same stories rehashed all week, and then seeing your team have about five minutes of offense a game doesn’t exactly scream balls to the wall excitement.

Baseball at the very least gives new material every day. Miguel Cabrera chips in with a nightly highlight, and Chris Davis answers with a home run. Keep watching and Yasiel Puig and Mike Trout continue the fire power out west. Whether it is the ongoing re-surgence of the Buckos, or the nosedive of the Yanks and Nats, baseball gives you more and more data everyday. Even the historically bad Astros are a fun, morbid follow these days.

Baseball isn’t more boring, it just requires more effort. It’s easy to be a football fan. The games are conveniently bunched on the average person’s off day. If you miss a game, the major stories will be talked about all week. If you need to stuff your face with chips, or go to the bathroom to do the opposite, you have ample time to do so. Baseball, on the other hand, is a daily regiment. You miss a game and it snowballs. The news cycle changes. Baseball doesn’t hold your hand and slow down for you to keep up, it just keeps on chugging, not fast, but steady. It’s easy to miss things  if you aren’t tenacious and that makes it a frustrating follow at times. But like anything else, the time put into baseball is rewarding. You get out what you put in.

So the next time you hear someone say baseball is boring (heaven forbid that person be you), remember that baseball gives you a lot more highlights, playing time, statistics, and overpriced beer, hotdogs, and ice cream to be bored about.

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